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Near-global fertility
decline began in the 1960s, and from the 1980s an increasing number of
European countries and some Asian ones achieved very low fertility (total
fertility below 1.5) with little likelihood of completed cohort fertility
reaching replacement level. Earlier theory aiming at explaining this phenomenon
stressed the incompatibility between post-industrial society and behaviour
necessary for population replacement. Recent theory has been more specific,
often concentrating on the current Italian or Spanish situations or on
the contrast between them and the situation in either Scandinavia or the
English-speaking countries, or both. Such an approach ignores important
evidence, especially that from German-speaking populations. The models
available concentrate on welfare systems and family expenses, omitting
circumstances that may be unique to individual countries or longer-term
factors that may be common to all.
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