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Population Research and Policy Review 22
(5-6): 575-583, December 2003
Copyright © 2003
Kluwer Academic Publishers All rights reserved
The Surprising Global Variation in Replacement
Fertility
Thomas J. Espenshade
Office of Population
Research, Wallace Hall, 2nd Floor,
Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA
Juan Carlos Guzman
Office of Population Research, Wallace Hall, 2nd Floor,
Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA
Charles F. Westoff
Office of Population Research, Wallace Hall, 2nd
Floor, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA
It is frequently assumed by the general
public and also by some
population experts that the value of replacement-level fertility is
everywhere an average of 2.1 lifetime births per woman. Nothing could
be further from the truth. The global variation in replacement
fertility is substantial, ranging by almost 1.4 live births from less
than 2.1 to nearly 3.5. This range is due almost entirely to
cross-country differences in mortality, concentrated in the less
developed world. Policy makers need to be sensitive to own-country
replacement rates. Failure to do so could result in fertility levels
that are below replacement and lead to long-run population decline. For
example, the current replacement total fertility rate for the East
Africa region is 2.94. Lowering fertility to 2.10 would, under current
mortality conditions, result in a regional birthrate 29 percent below
replacement.
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