|
This paper presents
estimates of a multiple time series model of fertility, female labor force
participation, women's wages, and the relative cohort size of younger to
older adult males. Cointegration methods permit modeling of these nonstationary
variables, yielding estimates of the long-run relation among the variables,
and the dynamic response of each variable to displacements from the steady
state. The estimated steady state relation between fertility and the other
variables is consistent with economic models of fertility, with fertility
negatively related to female wages and male relative cohort size. Fertility
responds to cohort size in a manner that is consistent with Easterlin's
relative income model of household behavior. Finally, both female labor
market variables adjust significantly to departures from the steady state
relation, implying that they cannot be treated as exogenous in time series
models of fertility.
|