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Il Giornale (Italy) January 4, 2006 Interview with Alexander Rahr, Director of studies on the former USSR at Berlin's Council for German Relations, by Marcello Foa: Putin Is Using Energy as a Political Tool in All of Ex-USSRThe observation post is privileged: since the days of Kohl, Germany is the European country most connected to the ex-Soviet Union. The competence of Alexander Rahr is unarguable: he is the director of the program of studies on the ex-USSR of the Council for German Relations, the most important private think-tank in Berlin. We asked him to comment on the gas crisis. (Il Giornale) The public is confused; who is wrong, Moscow or Kiev? (Rahr) I would say both. Putin is saying to Ukraine: if you want to join NATO, you have to pay the price. He is using gas as a political tool to impose the ex-Soviet Union's own interests. It is the first time it has happened, and this is obviously worrisome. (Il Giornale) And where is Kiev going wrong? (Rahr) In the past 15 years, Ukraine has done nothing to solve its own energy dependence. Two years ago, Schroeder and Putin had proposed the creation of an international gas consortium, but Kiev refused out of political calculations: it preferred to maintain its monopoly on the transit fees for the Russian gas. And to use that position as a tool. (Il Giornale) Is Ukraine really stealing gas? (Rahr) Without a doubt; it has always done so. In the last 10 years for an amount equal to $2 billion. And it has continued to help itself even after the Orange Revolution. (Il Giornale) There are those who say this is only a vendetta by Putin. Do you agree? (Rahr) No. Putin's position is part of a broader strategy. In Ukraine, he is aiming at obtaining two goals. First, to cause a worsening of the so far excellent relations between Kiev and the European Union, demonstrating that it is the Ukrainians who are taking the gas intended for Europe. Second, to take advantage of the strong popular discontent in Ukraine and the continual squabbles between Yushchenko and Timoshenko in order to make the ticket of ex-presidential candidate Yanukovich win in the March legislative elections. And the polls indicate that the latter's victory is very likely. At that point, the Orange Revolution will be cancelled, and Ukraine will go back into the Russian orbit. (Il Giornale) Will Moscow do the same with other countries of the former Soviet Union? (Rahr) It is already doing it. Moldova is already without gas; what little it receives is being given to it by Ukraine, which in turn is stealing it from Russia. Armenia is in big trouble, because its oil is being held back in Georgia. The reality is that nearly all of the former Soviet Union is a blank slate politically. Everything can be put back into discussion. And Russia, after having lost influence in some countries, has understood it can regain control using not the army any more but other forms of pressure like, precisely, the energy one. (Il Giornale) How will the gas crisis end? Is an agreement possible? (Rahr) The crisis is unresolvable, at least in the near term. Moscow will not lower the price, but Kiev does not have the money to pay for the gas at market rates. In the long term, probably they will go back to the international consortium idea, but for now I do not see any solution. (Il Giornale) But Ukraine cannot survive without supplies in the middle of winter... (ellipsis as published) (Rahr) Indeed, you will see that Kiev will increase the withdrawals of gas intended for Europe, obviously without admitting it. They will say they are using Tajik gas. But that will trigger new Russian retaliations. Perhaps ultimately the only solution will be the one that Kiev has so far rejected: asking for new loans from the international institutions in order to pay the energy bill. But that is only a hypothesis; other scenarios are possible. (Il Giornale) Which ones? (Rahr) The United States and the EU continue to issue appeals, but they seem paralyzed. Ukraine is an ally of theirs, and they should help it, but they do not have funds available. If the crisis were to come to a head and Europe started to be short of gas, somebody might even call for sanctions against Russia, in an attempt to defend Ukraine politically. Anything is possible.
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