[from WPS Monitoring Agency, www.wps.ru/e_index.html]
RUSSIA IS LOSING ITS SKILLED SPECIALISTS BECAUSE OF EMIGRATION,
BUT THIS LOSS IS COMPENSATED FOR BY IMMIGRATION OF SKILLED WORKERS FROM
THE POORER NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES. ACCORDING TO SOME ESTIMATES, BY 2050
RUSSIA WILL NEED NO FEWER THAN 17.5 MILLION MIGRANTS, OF WHOM ONLY 15%
WILL BE ETHNIC RUSSIANS.
Currently, Russia is going through a severe demographic crisis. Since
early 1990s the Russian population has decreased by 3 million people. This
figure would double without migrants. If in 1989 there were 1.53 million
deaths for each 2.16 million births, in 1999 this proportion was 1.99:1.28.
If the Russian population continues decreasing, in the near fifteen years
it will fall by 9-17 million people (from the present 145 million). According
to forecasts, by 2050 the population may decrease by 60 million people:
then there will be 80 million to 100 million people in Russia. In 2000
women's life expectancy was 72.2 years, men's life expectancy was 59.8
years. Thus, Russia is among the bottom third of all countries according
to life expectancy.
The reasons for such a high death rate and such low life expectancy
are diverse. The food is mostly high-fat and low in vitamins. Almost two-thirds
of men smoke. Heart disease is widespread. And the number of people who
have tuberculosis, AIDS, and sexually transmitted diseases such as syphilis
is rapidly growing. According to Russian statistics, in 1998 450,000 cases
of syphilis were registered; and the spread of the AIDS virus is reaching
African levels.
In the past 18 months alone, 129,216 new HIV-positive people have been
registered in Russia; this problem is especially disturbing in Moscow,
St. Petersburg, Irkutsk, and the Kaliningrad region.
Tuberculosis is also spreading in Russia: in some regions 80 people
out of 100,000 have tuberculosis, which is actually defined as an epidemic.
According to the World Health Organization, in 1998 150,000 cases of tuberculosis
were registered, with a trend toward growth; 15% of them were fatal.
The tense social situation is also bad for life expectancy. Violence,
accidents, alcohol abuse, together with suicide, are the top causes of
death after cancer. In 1998 forty percent of men who died were of working
age. However, it is not only low life expectancy that is the main reason
for the population decline in Russia. One of the main reasons is the extremely
low birth rate, which is one of the lowest in the world. In 1998 it was
1.25 and this noticeably lower than 2.15 which provides for full replacement
of generations. Today there are 4.4 million fewer children than five years
ago.
Emigration also has a negative impact on the population. In 1988- 98
many ethnic Germans left Russia. Since mid-1990s about 288,000 people emigrated
from the country. In the first half of 1990s mostly people of German and
Jewish nationality left the country; in 1998 they totaled a third of all
emigrants from Russia. Emigration is a hard issue for Russia because the
majority of emigrants are young, well- prepared people, so the country
is losing its intellectual potential.
The government is considering the high death rate as a factor that endangers
the national security. It would be possible to gain quick results if the
government managed to increase the men's life expectancy by three years
as it happened in the course of Mikhail Gorbachev's prohibition campaign.
In order to improve the health of the population, the government passed
a law that banned selling cigarettes to under-aged and smoking in public
places. The wages of the medical workers much be increased by 60%, the
people should be informed about the danger of high blood pressure of which
suffers 40% of the population. Simultaneously, the government is working
out the state pension system.
However, all these measures are far from being enough for improvement
of the demographic situation. That is why the migrants arriving in Russia
should be paid attention to. From 1992 to 1998 about 5.1 million people
immigrated in Russia. They are mostly ethnic Russians from CIS countries
and the Baltic states. From 1996 the current of ethnic Russians has reduced;
however, the immigration level is still rather high if consider the residents
of the Central Asia and the Caucasus.
According to the Interior Ministry, 350,000 people arrived in Russia
in 2000. As a result of economic growth at present some Siberian regions
lack skilled labor force, which is a good reason for oil companies to start
looking for employees in the CIS countries. The main subjects for the search
are Ukraine and Belarus, as these countries have one language and one culture.
Thus, the conclusion is that in particular Russia is losing a part of
its skilled specialists because of the emigration, but this loss is compensated
for by migration into the country of skilled labor force from the poorer
neighbor countries. According to real estimates, by 2050 Russia will need
no fewer than 17.5 million migrants, of which only 15% will be ethnic Russians.
Many details indicate that even an increase of the birth rate as a result
of economic growth will not be enough to replace the departing generation.
Given a drastic decline and aging of the population, Russia's global position
is endangered.
(Translated by Arina Yevtikhova )
ко=мент