Алкоголь стал менее смертельным, или пить стали меньше, или и то, и Другое ?

by Paul Goble

Vienna, June 24

During the first five months of 2005, the population of the Russian Federation fell by 2400 every day -- a figure resulting from 100 excess deaths over births every hour -- according to the latest report released by Moscow’s Federal Service of Government Statistics.

But despite this continuing decline in the population of that country, one which reflected the fact that there were 20,000 fewer births and 6,000 more deaths from January to May of 2005 than there were in the same period a year ago, analysts pointed to two positive trends.

On the one hand, the number of deaths from transportation-related accidents, alcohol poisoning, suicides and murders all declined from the same period a year ago. Thus, some 700 fewer people died in transportation-related accidents this year than last, and the number dying from alcohol poisoning fell by approximately 800.

On the other, migration into the Russian Federation increased from all the CIS countries except Georgia and Turkmenistan, with 54,000 people arriving during the first five months of 2005 as compared with only 28,000 in the same period a year ago. And emigration from the Russian Federation fell by 3,000 from 24,000 to 21,000.

But despite these positive numbers, the net migration flow the number of immigrants minus the number of emigrants -- compensated for only 10.3 percent of the natural population losses resulting from an excess of deaths over births, a figure higher than last year’s but one lower than many in Moscow had been hoping for.

And the positive numbers from these two sources only serve to highlight just how serious the demographic crisis in the Russian Federation now is as a result of other factors such as rising mortality rates from a variety of illnesses, analysts of this new data pointed out.

They noted that 57.8 percent of all deaths in the Russian Federation now are the result of diseases of the cardio-vascular system, and they said that the number of deaths from these diseases alone had increased by 9,000 for the first five months of 2005 as compared to the first five months of 2004.

These analysts also reported that deaths from lung diseases as well as from certain infections and parasites had gone up as well, figures that in themselves are a direct indictment of shortcomings in the health delivery system of the Russian Federation at the present time.

Following Russian President Vladimir Putin, many in the Russian Federation are likely to respond to these latest figures by calling for measures that will promote both more births and more immigration, but the historical record suggests that Moscow will find it hard to do either.

Pro-natal policies are not only extremely expensive, but they have to overcome a deep-seated trend to smaller families that affects not only the Russian Federation but many other countries.

And any increase in the number of immigrants intended to solve some demographic problems will do so only at the cost of creating significant political ones. Many Russians are opposed to the arrival of additional migrants from the Caucasus, Central Asia and China, the three largest sources in recent years.

Some Russians dislike them because these arrivals are so culturally distinct and do not appear likely to be absorbed by the Russian ethnos, but many more appear to be concerned because these arrivals may in some cases at least be taking jobs that Russian residents could do.

Consequently, it is probably no accident that the story about the latest demographic figures on the Russian nationalist site Russkaya liniya said that more migration was not an entirely positive thing and pointed out that unemployment in the Russian Federation had risen by 18.1 percent over the last twelve months.

Window on Eurasia: Russian Population Now Declining by 100 Every Hour

positive trends