Dr. Kirk Cameron, Statistical Scientist
Family Research Institute
Talk presented at seminar sponsored by Accuracy
in Media entitled, "The Gay Nineties"
Crystal City, Virginia
May, 1993
I. Mythic Status of the 10% Figure
A. Until
very recently, 10% figure has been accepted lore within media and academic
circles
1. Newsweek,
2/15/93, p. 46: "For years, the gay-rights movement has sought
safety in numbers. Its leaders have long claimed that homosexuals
constitute 10 percent of the American population. They cited Alfred
Kinsey, who interviewed thousands of men and women for landmark studies
on human sexuality in the 1940s and 1950s. Activists seized on the
double digits to strengthen their political messagethat millions
of citizens are excluded from the mainstream by anti-gay discrimination.
Policymakers and the press (including NEWSWEEK) adopted the estimatedespite
protests from skeptical conservativesciting it time and again.
2. Fortune,
1991, p. 42: "Kinseys classic 1948 studies suggest that
about 10% of American adults are homosexual, a figure that more recent
surveys support."
3.
Washington Times, 11/19/91, p. A3: "10 percent of American men
are homosexual and 5 percent of women are lesbian."
4. Professional
journals like the Family Therapy Networker, 1991: "from Kinseys
historic study in the 1940s to the present, surveys consistently show
that 10 percent of the population is either gay or lesbianthats
25 million people."
5. Even
the head of the American Psychological Association, Bryant Welch,
testified on 2/6/89 that the APA had found "in fact all the research
supported the conclusion that homosexuality... is a sexual orientation
found consistently in about ten percent of the male population and
approximately 5 percent of the female population.... research showed
that across different historical eras and in totally different cultures
the incidence of homosexuality remained the same irrespective of public
attitudes and prohibitions."
B. Figure is embodied in names of homosexual
groups such as "1 in 10" and the adolescent support project
for homosexual adolescents called "Project 10," which started
in the L.A. public school system but has now spread to San Francisco
and Minnesota also.
C. Proof of the pudding: so many "shocked"
by much lower recent numbers reported in Alan Guttmacher-sponsored study
of men aged 20-39, which estimated that only 1.1% of men had had only
male homosexual partners within the last 10 years.
1. Washington
Times, 4/16: "If everyone examines their own conscience,
they know that more than one in 100 people is gay.... Common sense
tells you this survey is nonsense, said Gregory King, spokesman
for the Human Rights Campaign Fund, the nations largest homosexual
rights group. I feel the 10 percent figure is probably about
right because many homosexuals fear to admit their sexual orientation,
said Cathy Renna, co-chairwoman of the Gay and Lesbian Alliance Againse
Defamation."
NY Times, 4/16: "Yesterday, gay
groups scoffed at the 1 percent figure, saying that even though the
researchers promised respondents anonymity, many homosexuals were afraid
to disclose their sexual orientation."
2. NY
Times editorial from 4/17 called the new survey results a "surprise"
3. Letter
to the Washington Blade entitled "Out in America": "Up
until now, we have always based our estimates of the size of our community
on the Kinsey studies of the late 1940s. Researchers revisiting the
question in the 1970s reaffirmed that one in ten view.
Until now. A sociological study published by the progressive Alan
Guttmacher Institute, that interviewed over 3,300 men throughout the
country in 1991, found that only 2.3 percent of those interviewed
admit to a same sex experience in the last ten years; only 1.1 percent
say they have been exclusively Gay. Although most of believe in our
heart of hearts that these are gross underestimates, the controversy
will continue to be fueled by experts and homophobes from everywhere."
4. NY
Times election poll buried: A journalism seminar reviewing 1992 nominated
the NY Times for one of the most significant "buried" stories
of the year. The Times own presidential election exit polls asked
about voters sexual orientation and found less than 3% claimed
to be gay. Times staffers couldnt believe the results, being
so much lower than the standard 10%, and so they did not report the
story.
D. More revealing: gay leaders now admit
to abusing the 10% figure for their own gain
1. NY Times 4/16: "Gay leaders have
contended that the number of gay and lesbian Americans was around 10
percent, a figure that many of them suspected to be inflated. But they
repeated the number often, they said, as a way of encouraging the nations
large population of closeted homosexuals to be open about their sexual
identity."
Newsweek, 2/15: "Some gay activists
now concede that they exploited the Kinsey estimate for its tactical
value, not its accuracy. We used that figure when most gay people
were entirely hidden to try to create an impression of our numerousness,
says Tom Stoddard, former head of the Lambda Legal Defense Fund."
II. Why Has 10% Figure Been So Sacred to Gay
Activists?
A. If 10% is true, gays constitute a significant
minority not easily ignored by:
1. Media
and politicians
NY
Times 4/16: "The size of the nations homosexual population
has long been at issue, all the more so in recent years as the gay
civil rights movement has gained momentum. The number has political
implications, since it translates into constituents, which translates
into votes."
NY
Times 4/17 editorial: "What does it matter? In the political
realm, power depends partly on numbers, so the new data may weaken
the gay rights movement just as it is struggling to lift the ban against
homosexuals in the military, head off laws in several states that
would allow discrimination against homosexuals and press President
Clinton to back gay causes."
2. American
public1 in 10 means someone you know and love or work with is
gay
B. If true, why would homosexuality be so
prevalent even under intense social disapproval?
1. Genetic
basis more plausible to many if 10% of population is consistently
gay
2. Can
explain 1 or 2% gay as a fringe group making radical choices. Harder
to explain actions of 10% of the population as "fringe"
behavior
C. Until now, the esteemed reputation and
work of Alfred Kinsey was at stake
1. For
years, we at FRI have found rough sledding trying to have scholarly
criticisms of Kinseys work published in reputable journals.
There has been a tremendous bias against criticizing Kinsey.
III. Kinseys Role in History of 10% Figure
A. Before Kinsey, homosexuality considered
fairly rare
1. Medical
and psychiatric communities speculated that the figure was around
2% or so
2. Columbia
Univ. psychiatrist David Abrahamsen wrote in 1944: "it is difficult
to say how frequent homosexuality really is. One is apt to say that
male homosexuality is found in only 2 percent of the total population,
but there is a general feeling that female homosexuality is more frequent."
3. Despite
the speculation, no substantial data existed except for isolated,
small studies of volunteers or clinical patients
a. Ironically,
given the problems we now know about Kinseys own methodology,
Kinsey strongly criticized previous studies of sexual behavior in
a review included in his first book, Sexual Behavior and the Human
Male. He wrote to a reviewer that it "is amazing how many people
have been willing to base generalizations about human sexual behavior
on general gossip and a handful of clinical cases, while they now
object strenuously to an adequate and carefully selected 5,300 cases."
B. No probability-based or randomly drawn
surveys existed. Why?
1. The
science and theory of statistics were still in their infancy in the
30s and 40s
2. Research
design and survey methodology in social sciences were barely born
as fields of study
3. Sex
was a taboo topic for general discourse
a. Even
today, we have found that people who refuse to fill out sex questionnaires
tend to be more conservative and sexually staid
b. Random
questionnaire survey on sexual behavior could easily have failed
in Kinseys time due to unwillingness on part of most Americans
to fill it out
C. Enter Kinsey, changing the face of sex
(and social science) research
1. Entymologist
with fair academic reputation from studies of gull wasps
2. Began
collecting sexual "histories" in late 30s
3. Asked
detailed series of intimate sexual questions of over 18,000 subjects
4. Made
systematic and extensive efforts to organize and present data in 2
massive books
a. So
massive that most people have never read through the Kinsey volumes
first-hand
D. Without competing data, Kinseys
figures eventually became "fact"
1. Sheer
size of his database was intimidating to critics
2. Methods
heavily criticized at first, but no counter data or studies put forward
to challenge Kinseys estimates
3. Critics
were eventually forgotten, but Kinseys database remained and
gained acceptance in the scientific literature
E. As psychology and sociology grew in stature
and popularity, Kinseys research held up as "gold standard"
in sex research
1. Partly
due to Kinseys detailed data collection methods and unique interviewing
style
2. Also
due to acceptance on the part of social scientists of Kinseys
basic philosophical approach
IV. Kinseys Impact
A. Kinseys philosophical approach:
erase distinction between sexually normal and abnormal behavior
1. Argument
based on sheer force of numbers: if a behavior is common or practiced
frequently, it cant be abnormal
a. Kinsey
wrote that "In view of the data which we now have on the incidence
and frequency of the homosexual... it is difficult to maintain the
view that psychosexual reactions between individuals of the same
sex are rare and therefore abnormal or unnatural, or that they constitute
within themselves evidence of neuroses or even psychoses."
2. Kinsey
ignored moral distinctions between right and wrong behavior; sexual
behavior just came in different varieties
a. Robinson,
in his biography of Kinsey, wrote that "[h]e would never have
tolerated the proposition that sexual taboos were justified because
they guaranteed social stability." Kinsey also said he believed
"most people would exercise greater Christian tolerance of
all types of sexual behavior, if they understood... why people do
what they do sexually."
3. Kinsey
was actually indignant about the effects of religion on our sexual
life
a. Pomeroy,
Kinseys co-worker, wrote that Kinsey "was indignant about
what it [the Judeo-Christian tradition] had done to our culture.
He often cited the inaccuracies and paranoia in which he asserted
it abounded. He was quite blunt in talking about this tradition
and its effect on the sexual lives of people in our own time..."
Kinsey also wrote that "moral attempts to control particular
forms of sexual outlet are designed to perpetuate the mores and
are often devoid of any logic, not to say scientific justification."
4 Zealously
tried to show taboo behaviors were pretty common (and therefore OK)
a. Estimated
high rates for masturbation, premarital sex, adultery, oral sex,
etc.
B. Kinsey on homosexuality
1. Issue
of huge political and social significance
a. How
many homosexuals?
b. How
much homosexual behavior?
2. Kinseys
claims
a. 10%
predominantly homosexual for at least 3 years of adulthood
b. 18%
bisexual or homosexual for at least 3 years of adulthood
c. 4%
exclusively gay throughout adulthood
d. 37%
of men with some post-pubertal homosexual experience
3. These
estimates were a serious and often shocking challenge to prevailing
popular and professional thought
C. The unsettled question
1. Were
Kinseys claims accurate? Question has hung around for last 40
years
2. Meanwhile,
Kinseys estimates have greatly impacted cultural attitudes toward
sex and homosexuality. Weight of counter evidence hasnt been
amassed until now
V. The Truth as Best We Know It
A. FRI research: we examined over 35 of "best"
studies available
1. Methodology
limited to studies with non-biasing methodology and design involving
some form of random selection
2. Probability-based
studies are the best shot for getting believable, unbiased population
estimates
B. Looked at two fundamental questions
1. What
fraction has ever had a post-pubertal homosexual experience?
2. What
fraction is bi-/homosexual in orientation?
C. Findings on post-pubertal homosexual experience
1. Overall,
certainly less than 10%, probably <5% for men and women
2. The
best studies include:
a. USA:
Kinsey-NORC
1970 8.2% M, 4.3% F after age 15
FRI-Dallas
1984 10.7% M, 7.4% F after age 12
NCHS
1988-91 І 3.5% M since 1977 (over 50,000 respondents)
GSS
1989 < 6.3% M after age 17
RTI-Dallas
1989 7.6% M, 2.7% F since 1978
GSS
1990 4.8% M after age 17
Billy/Guttmacher
1993 2.3% M in last 10 years
b. Australia:
Ross
1986 11.2 M, 4.6% F
c. Great
Britain
Forman/Chilvers
1984-86 1.7% M in random controls, 2.7% M among patients
Johnson
1992 6.1% M (almost 19,000 respondents)
d. France
Spira
1992 4.1% M, 2.6% F (over 20,000 respondents)
e. Norway
Sundet
1987 3.5% M, 3.0% F
f. Denmark
Schmidt
1989 3.8% M
Melbye
1989 2.7% M
3. Median
of studies listed above: 4.1% M, 2.0% F
Upper
quartile: 7.0% M, 4.6% F
D. Findings on homosexual orientation
1. Overall,
certainly less than 4%, probably around 2-3% M, 2% F are homosexual
or bisexual
2. The
best studies include
a. USA:
Bell/Weinberg
1970 < 2% total M and F (ratings of siblings)
Cameron/Ross
1975-78 3.1% M, 3.9% F
FRI
1983 5.4% M, 3.6% F (4,340 respondents)
Trocki
1988-89 3% M, 2% F
NCHS
1988-91 І 3.5% M (over 50,000 respondents)
Catania/NABS
1992 2% M, 2% F (4% in urban areas; 10,600 respondents)
Billy/Battelle
1993 і 1.1% M
b. Denmark
Schmidt
1987 0.6% M
c. Canada
MacDonald
1988 2% total M and F (> 5,500 college student respondents)
3. Median
of studies listed above: 2% M, 2% F
Upper
Quartile: 3.3% M, 3.7% F
E. Other evidence consistent with these findings
1. Census
Bureau count of gay/lesbian couples
a. Figure
of 157,400 is less than 1% of all US households
b. Washington
Blade reported that "The total includes 88,200 Gay male couples
and 69,200 Lesbian couples. The overall total of 157,400 represented
less than one percent of the 91 million U.S. households. Unmarried
heterosexual couples totaled approximately 3.1 million... representing
about three percent of the total households."
2. Admissions
from the NY Times on 4/16
a. First
a belated report on Presidential exit poll results the Times had
previously "buried," showing only 3% M and 2% F homosexuals:
"In fact, one survey analyzing the President vote found that
3 percent of men and 2% of women said they were gay, lesbian, or
bisexual."
b. The
Times also quoted a marketer to the homosexual community: "Sean
Strub, who runs a marketing firm in Manhattan that keeps mailing
lists of homosexuals for sale to advertisers and politicians, estimated
the size of the countrys gay population at 2.5 percent to
3.5 percent."
3. Simple
capitalism: gay bookstores in D.C.
a. There
are 11,000 bookstores of all types nationwide for an average of
18,000 adults/store
b. DCs
2.9 million adults support 210 bookstores or 14,000/store (more
educated populace)
c. Deacon
MacCubbin, owner of Lamba Rising, the largest gay bookstore in the
world, claimed there exist 534 gay or feminist/lesbian stores worldwide
d. Only
116 stores are strictly gay/lesbian; only 60 of these are located
in US
e. Even
tripling this number of stores to account for lesbians who frequent
feminist bookstores, gay and lesbian bookstores only slightly over
1% of the total
f. Furthermore,
Mr. MacCubbin claims gays buy 8 times the books of the average person
g. Yet
there are only two gay/lesbian bookstores in DC
h. Even
if each supports 15,000 gays/lesbians (not likely if gays really
buy so many books relative to the average reader, for then more
gay bookstores would be supportable), get total of 30,000 homosexuals
in D.C, approximately 1% of the total adult population
VI. Why Was Kinsey So Far Off?
A. Sample skewed tremendously by non-typical
populations
1. Had
interviewed over 1,500 convicted sex offenders in first 10,000 histories
2. Included
histories of 600 male and 600 female prostitutes in database
3. Regularly
visited not only prisons but known homosexual communities of his time.
In fact, in very few years did Kinsey fail to hit either a prison
or gay enclave in his sampling efforts
4. All
Kinseys histories were thrown together for analysis with little
regard for proper statistical weighting or handling of the data
B. Kinseys sampling scheme was not
systematic but rather haphazard
1. No
random or probability-based design
2. Used
underworld contacts to get into gay and sexually deviant groups
3. Kinsey
became very interested in documenting the extremes of sexual diversity,
even going so far as to film participants in sexual activity. The
Kinsey Institute contains an archive of such films.
4. By
being so interested in diversity, Kinsey was much less interested
in the relatively "dull" sexual histories of most ordinary
Americans, and these "dull" histories did not show up in
his sample nearly as often as they should have
VII. Is Recent Research Any More Reliable Than
Kinsey?
A. Usual criticism: gays wont reveal
themselves on surveys, wont tell truth
1. NY
Times, 4/15, reporting on the recent Guttmacher Institute study: "The
big question mark over every survey like this is, Are people telling
the truth? said Jacqueline Darroch Forrest, director of research
for the Guttmacher Institute, a research organization focusing on
sexual behavior and contraception."
2. Researchers
usually assume gays are undercounted
3. But
is this necessarily so?
B. In many sex surveys, half or more completely
refuse to fill out the questionnaire or respond at all
1. These
non-respondents are the crucial swing vote in determining whether
gays have been undercounted
2. Several
investigators, including we at FRI, have suggested that non-respondents
are more sexually conservative than respondents, based on experience
in working with sexuality questionnaires
3. This
would tend to mean that survey estimates with high rejection rates
overstate rather than understate figures on homosexual activity and
orientation, but evidence is not completely unequivocal
C. Evidence from three studies
1. FRI
reanalysis found partial non-responders to be most like conservative
heterosexuals and not sexually liberal
2. U.
Maryland study had two types of data collection
a. Study
of student volunteers and a separate anonymous postal questionnaire
sent to a random portion of the student body
b. Comparison
of the results showed that the volunteer students were more sexually
liberal and active than the students who responded to the random
mail survey
c. Given
the anonymity associated with the mail survey, and the lack of anonymity
associated with being a volunteer participant, these results suggest
that the sexually liberal are indeed willing to share their experiences
in a sex study
3. RTI
study
a. Paid
up to $175 to initial refusals to get them to cooperate
b. Increased
overall response rate to 88%
c. Found
higher rate of homosexual contact among initial refusals than among
those who responded the first time, suggesting that some with homosexual
experience did initially try to hide that fact, at least until the
price was right.
d. However,
a public ad campaign by gay leaders against the study may have caused
more initial refusals than would have normally occurred
e. Also,
and very importantly, the target study population was cut off at
age 54 even though most refusals in other studies tend to be older
(heterosexuals)
D. Overall, current set of studies seems
adequate and sufficient to estimate size of gay subpopulation
Family Research Report
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FRR is published 8 times/year by the Family Research
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Dr. Paul Cameron, Publisher
Dr. Kirk Cameron, Editor
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