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General Information on Project Implementation

Under an agreement with the UNFPA Headquarters, research has been conducted in 2003 into the demographic impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in the Russian Federation, as part of project RER/01/P07 «Demoscope Weekly - Regional Population and Development Information». To accomplish the project, an interdisciplinary expert group headed by Academician V. V. Pokrovsky, Russian Academy of Medical Sciences, and Academician A. G. Vishnevsky, Russian Academy of Natural Sciences, was established. The group also included N. N. Ladnaya and E. V. Sokolova (Federal Research and Methodological Center for AIDS Prevention and Control (FRMC AIDS), Russian Federation Ministry of Health), V. I. Sakevich (Center for Demography and Human Ecology (CDHE), National Economic Forecasting Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences), and B. P. Denisov (Population Economics and Demography Laboratory, Department of Economics, Moscow State University).

During the project’s implementation, activities have been carried out as follows:

1) Data on demographic developments and the HIV-infection epidemic spread in Russia have been collected and analyzed. Thus, in particular, the main HIV-infection spread factors and the composition of HIV-infected persons as to age and sex have been studied, and a typology of Russia’s regions showing HIV prevalence there has been made. An assessment of the country’s HIV/AIDS epidemiological surveillance system has been given. In addition to that, the dynamics of HIV/AIDS epidemic markers such as tuberculosis and sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) has been analyzed.

2) Based on analysis of the available publications, a tentative estimate of the size of population groups at risk for HIV such as injecting drug users (IDU) and their sex partners, men having sex with men (MSM), commercial sex workers (CSW) and their partners, bisexuals, jail inmates, and some other population groups, and of HIV prevalence among them has been made.

3) Projections of demographic developments and several versions of the HIV epidemic spread in Russia have been made, and the possible demographic impact of HIV/AIDS has been identified, given various scenarios of HIV prevalence among the country’s population in the period to come and various degrees of antiretrovirus therapy (ART) available (for such projections a package of Spectrum programs was used in particular).

4) The members of the group have established and maintained personal contact with researchers studying the behavior of persons from among risk groups, and activities have been started to set up an expert network in the research fields of risk groups, HIV/AIDS and their impact on demographic developments. At this stage, contacts have been established among the experts of FRMC AIDS, CDHE, Moscow State University, the Institute of Sociology (St. Petersburg), Russian Academy of Sciences, the National Research Center on Addictions, Russian Federation Ministry of Health, the Center for AIDS Intervention Research, Medical College of Wisconsin, USA, the World Bank, a number of leading non-governmental organizations, including foreign NGOs that operate in the Russian Federation, such as AIDSinfoshare, the East-West Institute, the Russian Association for Prevention of Sexually Transmitted Infections (which is known as SANAM), to mention a few. 

5) A survey was conducted among experts on the subject: Estimate of the size of risk groups. 

6) A two-day scientific conference «AIDS in Russia: Trends, Factors and Consequences» was held in Moscow on March 19-20, 2003. The conference was organized by the Transnational Family Research Institute, the Federal Research and Methodological Center for AIDS Prevention and Control (Russian Federation Ministry of Health), the Center for Demography and Human Ecology (National Economic Forecasting Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences), and the Council for Foreign and Defense Policy. To arrange the conference, assistance was given by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA). The conference was attended by nearly 80 persons who represented research institutions, the Moscow representative offices of international organizations (UNAIDS, UNDP, WHO, ILO, IOM, the UN Office on Drug Abuse Control and Crime Prevention, the World Bank, and UNICEF), donors (USAID, the Ford Foundation, and the Open Institute of Health), several non-governmental organizations, including those of sexual minorities (about 10 such organizations altogether), Russia’s regions, etc. The goal of the conference was to elaborate methodological approaches to the assessment of the range of population groups at the greatest risk of being infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and of the possible demographic and economic impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in regard to Russia. 

During the conference there were five sessions:

Session 1. Review of the overall situation

Session 2. Risk groups: injecting drug users

Session 3. Risk groups: commercial sex workers and their clients

Session 4. Risk groups: men having sex with men, bisexuals and other risk groups

Session 5. Demographic and economic impact of AIDS

A general discussion was held at the final meeting of the conference. The proceedings of the conference were extensively used in writing this report.

The report on the conference was posted on the Demoscope Weekly web site.

The program of the conference is attached to the present report (Appendix 1).

7) A press conference and a round-table discussion were organized for journalists in the Izvestia newspaper media center. During these events information was provided on the findings of the research and the principal results of the discussion at the above-mentioned scientific conference. The press conference and the round-table discussion were attended by S.A. Karaganov, Chairman of the Council for Foreign and Defense Policy, F.A. Lukyanov, editor-in-chief of the Rossiya v globalnoi politike (Russia in Global Politics) journal, and A.V. Fyodorov, director responsible for the political programs of the Foundation - Center for Political Studies and Consulting. The proceedings of the press conference and the round-table discussion received coverage in several media outlets, both electronic and print. Some of the articles that were published by mass media are given in Appendix 2.

8) The problems of AIDS, AIDS prevention, and the possible impact of the disease, among others, have received regular coverage in the Demoscope Weekly. Its special issue (No. 89/90) dealt entirely with these problems. In addition to that, information on the AIDS-related situation in the Russian Federation and the ex-Soviet republics has been published regularly almost in all issues of the weekly.

Mass media materials, related to the project, (Appendix 2) have not been translated into English, for details see Russian version of this report.

Demographic Impact of HIV/AIDS Epidemic in the Russian Federation

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