DRAFT REPORT on
Research Conducted Into
Demographic
Impact of HIV/AIDS Epidemic in the Russian Federation
Under Project RER/01/PO7
«Demoscope Weekly – Regional
Population and Development Information»
Executing agency: Transnational
Family Research Institute, Russia (TFRI/R)
CONTENTS
A. General Information on Project
Implementation
B. Research Findings
HIV Epidemic in Russia
HIV-Infection Epidemiological
Control System
Epidemic Dynamics
Modes of Transmission
HIV-Infected by Age
and Sex
Regions of the Russian
Federation
Size of Risk Groups and HIV
Prevalence
Narcomania
and Injecting Drug Use
Injecting Drug
Users
Men Having Sex With Men
Commercial Sex Workers
Other Risk Groups
Sex Partners of Drug
Users
Bisexuals
Clients of Commercial
Sex Female Workers
Prison Populations
Others
Children of Parents From
Among Risk Groups
Sexual Behavior
Sexually Transmitted Diseases
Population’s Awareness
Forecasting of HIV Epidemic and
Its Possible Demographic Impact
Epidemic Forecast
Forecast Assumptions
Obstacles to the epidemic
expansion
Input Data Common to All
Scenarios
Forecasted Results
Number of Infected with HIV
AIDS Deaths
Life Expectancy
Population Size
The Future of Research of the HIV
Epidemic in Russia
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1. The
results of testing Russia’s citizens for HIV antibodies in 2002
Table 2. Number
of tests for HIV in 2001, WHO Europe
Table 3. Registered
of HIV+ cases, Russia
Table 4. HIV-infected
in Russia by main risk factors, %
Table 5. HIV-infected
in Russia by age at the time of detecting the infection (from Jan. 1, 1987,
to Dec. 31, 2002)
Table 6. Top
10 regions. Living with HIV/AIDS, per cent of entire population, end of
2002
Table 7.
Narcomania incidence, Russia, 1995-2002
Table 8.
Registered narcomaniacs by the type of the drug,
2001, %
Table 9. STDs,
fungal, dermal diseases and scabies
Table 10. Percentage
of women, age 15-44, who have ever been diagnosed with urino-genital inflammation
(average for three regions of Russia)
Table 11. Incidence
of viral hepatites
Table 12. Knowledge
of HIV/AIDS. Per cent of giving correct answers
Table 13. Scenarios
of HIV/AIDS Development
Table 14. Age
Distribution of HIV Infected, per cent, 2002
Table 15. Cumulative
Proportion Progressing from HIV Infection to AIDS Death, by Time Since
Infection, % (Model)
Table 16. HIV-positive,
2015 and 2025, thousand people
Table 17. Some
of the Groups of Patients (Registered in Disease-Prevention and Treatment
Centers), end of 2000
Table 18. Annual
AIDS Deaths, 2015 and 2025, thousand
Table 19. Cumulative
AIDS Deaths by 2015 and 2025, thousand
Table 20. Died
in 2001 Due to Some Causes of Death
Table 21. AIDS
Related Decrease in Life Expectancy, 2025, years
Table 22. Decrease
of the Population Size, mln
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1. Registered
narcomaniacs per 100,000 of population, by age, 2001
Figure 2. Abortion
dynamics in Russia (all women, 15 to 49 years old, and adolescents), 1991=100
Figure 3. Incidence
of syphilis and gonorrhea, 1987-2001, Russia, per 100,000
Figure 4. Dynamics
of Changes in Men’s Age Composition in Russia
Figure 5. Annual
Births in Russia
Figure 6. Changes
of Age Group of 20-29 Year, 2002-2025, (Scenario D), mln
Figure 7. Number
of Infected with HIV According to Various Scenarios of Forecast. 2002-2025
Figure 8. Population
Size, 2002-2025
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