Forecast Assumptions

The scenarios of the epidemic growth were based on the following considerations: the size of the main risk groups will not grow in number, HIV prevalence among them is close to stabilization (a certain growth is possible to happen only in the next few years); the epidemic will proceed mainly by its «erosion» spreading to the rest of the population through sex contacts. A common feature of an epidemic is an inevitable decline after a peak has been reached. The peak of HIV epidemic in Russia might occur earlier and at a lower level than has been envisaged in our forecast (possibly, the peak has already been reached). We also assumed that medicines against AIDS will not yet be produced during the period of the forecast, and there will be no decline in epidemic which will stabilize at a high level. 

Table 13. Scenarios of HIV/AIDS Development

In series of R scenarios (R, R1 and R2) the number of cases really registered in the data base of the Federal Research and Methodical Center for AIDS Prevention and Control (FRMC AIDS) was adopted as the initial base level; 

Scenario E supposes a substantial underenumeration of HIV-infected people in the FRMC AIDS data base, and for this reason a doubled number of the registered HIV-positive people was adopted as the benchmark level;

In scenario U, the estimated number of infected with HIV published by UNAIDS for international comparisons was adopted as the benchmark level. Such an indicator can be determined by applying the proportion HIV+ among those tested to the entire population.

In series A scenarios (A, A1, A2 and A3) the number close to that released by the US National Intelligence Council under the CIA Director was adopted as the benchmark level. The same number has been used by N. Eberstadt and the US Center for Strategic and International Studies.

It is assumed that the infection growth, according to all scenarios, with the exception of A1, will go on till the year 2015 to be followed by the stabilization of the epidemic at a permanent level of the HIV spread or by its decline (scenario R1). In scenario A1 the proportion of infected with HIV among the adult population will grow more rapidly, reaching a peak as early as 2005. R1 and A3 are special scenarios, they assume 100% accessibility of ART.