The age composition of Russia’s population can
have a significant effect on the epidemic dynamics. The shape of age-gender
pyramid reflects a series of demographic catastrophes in the XXth century
which will be persistent in the future. As a result, the size of age groups
periodically changes in a wavelike manner, passing through the periods
of growth and decrease. For the future of HIV epidemic most important are
the sizes of those age groups where the epidemic has been progressing.
Fig.4 Dynamics of
Changes in Men’s Age Composition in Russia
Fig. 5. Annual Births
in Russia
Figure 4 shows that the size of the age group
of 15-year-olds reached a peak in 2002, thus reflecting a highest number
of children born in 1987 (Figure 5), and the sizes of all younger cohorts
will be smaller. Quite the contrary, virtually each cohort that reached
the age of 15 prior to the given year was bigger than the preceding one,
starting with the smallest cohort born in 1968 («an echo of the war»).
Taking into account that virtually all risk groups, especially IDUs, have
an obvious concentration at a young age, it may be argued that the number
of people who are most likely to fall into risk groups will cease to grow
before long, that is, an absolute decrease in the size of the risk groups
should be expected. In other words, the present-day situation radically
differs from that of 1987 when the first ever case of HIV infection was
registered in our country.
At the present time, the size of the age group
20-30 (the main source to the epidemic) is 21 million, its size will grow
slightly by 2010, and will go down, according to the suggested scenario,
to 13 million by 2025 (Figure 6), thus, undoubtedly, producing, an impeding
effect on the epidemic in the time to come.
Fig. 6. Changes
of Age Group of 20-29 Year, 2002-2025, (Scenario D), mln
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