Age and Sex Distribution of HIV Infections.
The age structure of infected in the base period represents the FRMC AIDS
data base (Table 14). Age distribution for the period of the forecast was
changed slightly towards a greater HIV age «erosion».
Table 14. Age Distribution
of HIV Infected, per cent, 2002
|
Age
|
Males
|
Females
|
|
0-4
|
2,5
|
7,3
|
|
5-9
|
0,0
|
0,0
|
|
10-14
|
0,3
|
0,4
|
|
15-19
|
16,1
|
21,6
|
|
20-24
|
40,3
|
40,4
|
|
25-29
|
22,8
|
16,9
|
|
30-34
|
9,6
|
7,3
|
|
35-39
|
4,3
|
2,8
|
|
40-44
|
2,0
|
1,2
|
|
45-49
|
1,0
|
0,7
|
|
50-54
|
0,5
|
0,4
|
|
55-59
|
0,3
|
0,4
|
|
60-64
|
0,2
|
0,2
|
|
65-69
|
0,1
|
0,1
|
|
70-74
|
0,1
|
0,2
|
|
75 +
|
0
|
0,0
|
|
Total
|
100
|
100
|
The Ratio of Female to Male Prevalence.
In 2002, female prevalence was 33% of that of males, and its gradual increase
to 40% is to be expected in the future.
Distribution of Those Who Died of AIDS Since
Infection. Nearly 600 Russian citizens have died of AIDS in Russia
over the entire period of registration (since 1987). Such a number of observations
is insufficient to estimate the mortality pattern of AIDS. Therefore, a
model distribution, based on available data worldwide, was applied.
According to this model (Table 15), a half of the
adults dies in 11 years since infection; a half of the children infected
since their birth dies at age six to seven. 13% of the adults and 32% of
the children remain alive for 20 years since infection.
Table 15. Cumulative
Proportion Progressing from HIV Infection to AIDS Death, by Time Since
Infection, % (Model)
|
Years
|
Adults
|
Children
|
Years
|
Adults
|
Children
|
|
1
|
0
|
25
|
11
|
50
|
58
|
|
2
|
0
|
34
|
12
|
58
|
59
|
|
3
|
1
|
39
|
13
|
65
|
60
|
|
4
|
4
|
43
|
14
|
71
|
62
|
|
5
|
7
|
47
|
15
|
76
|
63
|
|
6
|
11
|
49
|
16
|
82
|
64
|
|
7
|
17
|
51
|
17
|
85
|
65
|
|
8
|
24
|
53
|
18
|
87
|
66
|
|
9
|
32
|
55
|
19
|
87
|
67
|
|
10
|
41
|
57
|
20
|
87
|
68
|
Source: Stover John. AIM.
A Computer Program for Making HIV/AIDS Projections and Examining the Social
and Economic Impacts of AIDS / Spectrum System of Policy Models. The POLICY
Project. December 2001.
Perinatal Transmission Rate. As estimated
by the FRMC AIDS, the frequency of the perinatal HIV transmission rate
in Russia before 2000 was, on average , 19.3%. In 90% of such cases some
measures were taken to prevent HIV transmission from mother to child. These
figures were applied to the entire period of the forecast.
Percentage of Infants with AIDS Dying in the
First Year of Life. Since in Russia the number of infants with AIDS
who died in the first year of life is very small (six cases over the entire
period of observations), an average world rate of 67% was used.
Life Expectancy After AIDS Diagnosis. Since
there has been a small number of observations, the Spectrum default one
year was used. According to the data of the FRMC AIDS, an average span
of time between AIDS diagnosis and death in Russia is 2.2 years. In other
words, we used parameters that increase the AIDS mortality.
Fertility of HIV-Positive Women. At present,
there are no reliable data on how HIV affects reproductive behavior. Experts
tend to believe that a decrease in fertility among HIV-infected women should
be expected, particularly, for biological reasons. The research of E. V.
Sokolova at FRMC AIDS revealed that a pregnancy among HIV+ women (knowing
that they are HIV+ indeed) is eight times less frequent than in population.
However, all our scenarios accept no changes in fertility.
The Proportion of Those in Need Receiving Anti-Retroviral
Therapy. In Russia, according to the FRMC AIDS, the proportion receiving
free medical treatment of those who need it is 80% in the base period.
For all scenarios except for R2 and A3 we assumed it will gradually go
down to 40% by the end the projection period due to an increase in the
number of HIV cases and limited resources. Scenarios R2 and A3 suppose
100% accessibility of ART.
|