RUSSIA'S CROSS

THE DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION IN THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION LEAVES MUCH TO BE DESIRED. THE BIRTH RATE IS STEADILY DECLINING, WHILE THE DEATH RATE IS RISING. IF THIS TREND PERSISTS, RUSSIA WILL BE UNABLE TO HANDLE ITS GEOPOLITICAL PROBLEMS WITHIN THE NEXT DECADE.

In 1992, Russia's population was 148.3 million. Then the process of depopulation started, i.e. the birth rate started to lag behind the death rate.

The Security Council is considering several issues in this connection: the demographic situation as such, poverty, homelessness, and public health.

According to the State Statistics Committee, by the start of 2001 Russia's population had decreased by over 750,000 people compared to the start of 2000. Last year the death rate was almost double the birth rate. According to forecasts of the State Statistics Committee, there will be only 134.4 million people in Russia in 2016. The number of those who die before retirement age is growing too: in 2000, it was over 600,000 (29% of the total number of deaths). In developed nations, the death rate among people of working age is two to four times lower. The death rate of those aged 20 to 29 rose by 60% between 1991 and 1999. This means that only 58% of those who are now aged 16 will live to 60. In many regions of Russia, deaths outnumber births three to one.

The mass depopulation of the country coincided with the start of Gorbachev's perestroika (фактическая ошибка, на самом деле наоборот) and continued during Yeltsin's reforms. The socio-economic changes have directly influenced the death rate.

An unprecedented drop in reproduction rates was observed in the 1990s. According to rough calculations, the reproduction rate decreased from 1.73 in 1991 to 1.2 in 2000, whereas this rate should be 2.14 to 2.15 for population replacement.

In many Western countries, population decline is due to low birth rates. As for Russia, the low birth rate is combined with a high death rate. Currently, the death rate is almost double the birth rate.

The birth rate has halved over the period of reforms. In 1986, the birth rate was 17.2 per thousand, and in 1990 this figure was 9.5 per thousand.

Thus, shock therapy has cost Russia 13 million people. The liberal experiment has had double the impact of Stalin's purges in terms of the annual loss of human resources; it is second only to the Nazi invasion of 1941-45.

Most of deaths in the past decade have been caused by cardiovascular diseases (50%). The second place is held not by cancer, as elsewhere in the world, but accidents, injuries, and poisoning. This group also includes such causes of death as murders, suicides, alcohol poisoning, etc. These factors were involved in half of deaths among working-age men. Around 80% of working-age people who died were men.

The age structure of Russia's population is also deteriorating. The low birth rate will lead to the fact that by 2005, the number of children and adolescents under 16 will considerably decrease. This will have a number of different negative outcomes. For instance, it will be impossible to get enough men for the Russian Armed Forces by the end of the first decade of the 21st century, even if troop strength is halved.

The reduction of the birth rate is connected not with an increase in the number of childless women, but a decrease in the frequency of births. Most women refuse to give birth to a second or third child, for socio-economic reasons. According to statistics, 24% of women of reproductive age (i.e. aged 18 to 44) do not intend to have children at all; 41% intend to have only one child; 31% are prepared to have two children; and only 3% of women intend to have three or more children. Thus, there are 1.1 children for each woman of reproductive age. Consequently, in 20-25 years time, for every hundred Russian women today there will be 55 "daughters" (boys are born more often than girls). If the situation does not change by then, within another 25 years there will be only 30 "granddaughters". Thus, Russia's population by 2025 will be 116 million, and the birth rate will be three times less that the current catastrophic rate. Meanwhile, the population of Russia's southern neighbors (China, Turkey, and so on) will grow.

The rapid extinction of the Russian population will inevitably lead to the growth of separatist trends in the ethnic republics.

There have been some noticeable changes in the ethnic structure of the Russian population. The breakup of the USSR was followed by changes in its ethnic map. Many ethnic Russians have moved to Russia from former Soviet republics. Simultaneously, members of other ethnic groups have been leaving Russia: Kazakhs have been leaving Russia for Kazakhstan, a lot of Uzbeks have emigrated to Uzbekistan, and so on. Almost 70% of refugees and other migrants coming to Russia are ethnic Russians. In total, over two million Russians have come to their ethnic homeland since the breakup of the USSR.

The influx of migrants is distributed between the North Caucasus, Volga, and Central economic zones. Here they exacerbate the situation in the labor and housing markets.

The Northern, Eastern Siberian, and Far Eastern economic zones are losing their population rapidly. This trend will persist in the first decade of the 21st century. The population of these three zones will decrease by 700,000 by 2005, due to outward migration alone.

This is happening against a backdrop of uncontrolled, illegal mass immigration of Chinese and Koreans to Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East. Besides, the US and Japan have declared these zones to be territories of their strategic interests. Thus, the geopolitical situation has changed in these regions, and the government should predict the outcomes of this situation.

The expansionist policies of China and Japan, and the development of the Islamic fundamentalism in the South, combined with the current demographic situation in Russia, may lead to Russia becoming the home of various non-Russian ethnic groups from neighboring countries.

Russia's economic and demographic resources are half those of the USSR. Meanwhile, it has to maintain the security of state borders that are almost as extensive as those of the Soviet Union. It also has to resolve military-strategic issues that are practically analogous to those of the Soviet Union. The situation is exacerbated even further by the fact that interethnic conflicts are breaking out all along Russia's borders. Besides, almost all Russia's neighbors have some territorial disputes with Russia.

American political analyst Geoffrey Tyler said in his article "The End of Russia" in March 2001: "In a few decades Russia will concern the world no more than any other third-world country with large supplies of raw materials, a poor population, and a corrupt government. Russia is dead as a great power."

There is no alternative to having a national concept of demographic development based on the need for population growth. Therefore, one of the government's top priorities ought to be correcting the demographic processes in Russia.

Оценки будущей численности населения:

IIASA, опубликована в Nature (полезна для сравнения возрастной структуры в др. регионах мира)
ЦДЭЧ. оглашена в ДУ РАН