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The year 2001 had some remarkable features besides it was the first
round anniversary of new Russia, thus, the time for summarizing the
preliminary results. According to the accepted by our nation system
of chronology it was the first year of a new millennium (guess whether
Russia is a part of Europe). This year former comrades Yelzin and Gorbachev
arrived to the age of 70. By 2002, it seems, no need to explain, who are
those guys.
From my viewpoint, a stress, caused by wreck of communism, begins to
pass; liberal euphoria leaves together with the dreams that did not come
true. People reconsider their expectations, and replace disbelief, disappointment
and cynicism with another sort of feelings. A period of sober realism is
coming. The world of ready money has become ordinary and habitual.
What for?
Reading the press (not only in English, and mostly not in English), one
could possibly come to a wrong conclusion, that, as a result of antinational
liberal reforms everything in Russia, that has not collapsed yet, performs
so poorly, that it is impossible to live. The people cannot maintain their
basic needs, and dies. Complete extinction is a matter of time. It is the
incorrectness of this thesis that I shall try to illustrate below, taking
into account, that just one example of the opposite is enough to deny the
taken for granted proof of it.
At the same time it is quite clear, that nobody will change his/her
mind under either proof or denial, and the ruin of these notorious ten
years is proved, simply if it exists in the heads of the "certain" part
of a society. The task of my comments is therefore to enforce an opposite
idea in the heads of another part of a society. I am writing for those
who are "uncertain", who are not sure that what they see around are either
already ruined or ruining now, for those who are yet incapable to see the
positive shifts (probably due to young age). In other words: it is a kind
of advocacy of life in modern Russia produced for those in doubt, and thus
able to conceive.
Particular challenge is to understand what occurs with mortality. My
megalomania is not so strong as to apply for closing the problem, but some
interesting things, I hope, you will find out in this review.
Why English?
Mr. Medvedev couldn't help saying:
... For a Westerner, Russia is a mythological space, ruled
by hyperbole, not by reason or statistics. Common sense does not apply...
[more]
My reasons were similar: since Russia and the West (the USA) ceased the
hostilities, it is necessary to try to better understand a former enemy,
all the more now it is possible (if not a must) to listen to each other
in order to develop more or less adequate image of the current partner
(former enemy), and clarify a position
he is in. I suggest to pay more attention to simple facts, data
and statistics, and make some sense out of them.
I have considered several articles from major American, English, and
Canadian newspapers because in the unipolar world we live since the end
of the USSR these very papers (re)shape the public opinions not only where
they are printed but elsewhere including Russia. On the other hand, it
is too hard to read the mentioned thesis in Russian, and one's heart should
be protected to manifest an example of self-preserving behavior to improve
the life expectancy dynamics of Russian males. Some translations from Russian
media are also included. The review of the scientific literature in Russian
stands in a plan, and it will appear on the net, most likely here on this
same site.
Why am I itching to do it ?
Facts and figures, in my humble opinion, deny the deterioration of everything,
except for mortality, which requires a more complex discourse. According
to the majority of experts the basic reason of mortality growth is general
stress sharper experienced by the men, and this seems trustworthy. I join
to the majority because of absence of better explanation. The international
comparisons show, that no country in the world (sharing same stratum
with Russia) did not experience such strikes of fate in past 100 or more
years probably except for Germany, but the period 1933-1945 is insufficient
for replacement of generations and complete forgetting of the normal way
of life.
It is a frequently used allegation that Russia has never experienced
such heavy losses of population
like in past ten years. Most likely the author of the thesis is Prof M.
Feshbach, but originally the thesis is longer and contains additional conditions:
in case of no war, famine, etc. However, it penetrated the mass media slightly
truncated, thus misleading. This type of incorrect interpretation or lack
of adequate understanding is inherent in mass media. The statistics of
rather frequent Russian wars is actually poor or do not exist at all, the
estimates are approximate. Famines seem analyzed better, there are more
estimates, and it is whole direction in demography on the Ukraine. Let
me recall you that the most severe famine in our country has happened in
peacetime and was a result of neither a drought, nor a flood, but of a
socialist agricultural revolution.
On one hand, Russia is the unique country. No country in the world had
experienced a so long engagement in the erecting of a chimera of communism
(ancient Egypt is not taken into account), on the other hand - the periods
of mortality growth had been observed in other countries as well. For example,
it took place in England during a period of industrial revolution. That
revolution led to: (1) it is "Das Kapital" by Karl Marx, the most terrible
shell into a head of capitalism, the theoretical base of communist revolutions,
and (2) liberal reforms which (re)produce a current state of the English
labor force. Male life expectancy in England and Wales in 1963-65 was 68.3
or greater than the maximum in this
country (observed in hat period). This indicator of social well being
continued to grow, and it grows now. The Empress of the seas came to different
conclusions given the same challenge.
Impression
As a whole, the English newspapers on the topic write quieter, deeper and
with more arguments, Americans - use shocking figures (imho, not always
checked), spillovers of sensational nature. The Canadian editions, oddly
enough, are closer to English. One may hardly says that western media lies,
but invents and fairly tells stories. Probably, a person might be curious
to execute the opposite move, and consider Russian fairy tales about mortality
in, for example, countries of NATO?
I also tried to introduce a kind of intrigue. Certainly it concedes
to the theories of global plots, masonry conspiracy or the (Russian made)
concept of Washington obkom, but there ought to be something to organize
a material to some extent in eight not (in)coherent parts.
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