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Is it for real?
Although I am not an economist, but after the graduation from the dept.
of economics of Moscow University I do have a common sense idea about an
economy and its crisis. That is why I protest against the description of
a situation in Russia as of an economic crisis.
First of all I disagree that before the so called crisis, which has
begun in 1991 (?), the overproduction took place. Being on the consumer
side I have not seen plenty of goods and services before 1991. According
to Goscomstat after 1991 the production obviously dropped almost to a ground
level. The policy of 1991-92 has cut off a part of industrial system, which
was senseless for the consumers (and reproduction?), that very part which
remained alive only due to Gosplan and central party committee efforts.
Russian consumers have not noticed the immense fall of industrial output.
Moreover, the opposite process is very visible (to those able to see),
since 1991 (and particularly since 1998) the economic growth is obvious
in consumer sector (working with population), for instance even in a hot
summer noon one could drink his favorite (!!!) well chilled beer
without queuing a long line.
There is some muddle of concepts as the statement of crisis is affirmed.
It is hardly possible to apply a common metric or criterion to the economy
far from (advanced) capitalist stage. For instance, American definition
of crisis as an absence of growth within two quarters is absolutely alien
to an economy in transition. In brief, no economy = no economic crisis.
A slow reforming of economic system stretches our pleasure of falling
of national manufacture, though ten years is a too short period for reorganization
of a huge industrial system. The faster the economic growth brings us to
really economic reproduction in all sectors of economy, the more likely
the real economic crisis will appear. At the moment we still need to wait.
While the grass grows, the horse starves (English proverb)
More likely the fall of industrial output led to a fall of mortality, than
to its growth. According to the Soviet tradition and mentality a work is
not simply a work, it is more than a work, it is a battle for a harvest
(fraught with injuries), speedy combat on transport, feat of glory, etc.
The number of the injured in an accident on a working place reduced in
1990-2000 from 432.4 to 151.8 thousand cases (almost threefold). The number
of deaths on a working place (at a job) during this period decreased from
8.39 till 4.40 thousand cases. If the production itself really decreased
(more than in 2-3 times) at the same time, the work has become even more
risky.