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The steady trend of life expectancy growth in our country is absent
as well as unsteady one. What we have here in Russia is definitely the
opposite case. During a period of registration it is difficult to allocate
a positive shifts, or the vector of development to better. Moreover, Russia
does not approach even the vicinities of an
average level of mortality. Such situation has not appeared at once, neither
yesterday, nor in past 10 years, the fall of life expectancy began already
about 50 years ago. In the period of communism the committee central was
likely surprised with such population answer to a scientifically based
construction of the most just and happy society and had solved this obvious
contradiction by closing the publication (not only) of the mortality data.
The general data reappears with perestroika, and after its end with the
restoration of democracy in Russia more comprehensive statistics on mortality
had been published, for example, distribution of death not only by age,
but also by cause of death.
The published material cannot be mastered at once, it needs time. On
the other hand, the period of secrets left blank (more precisely dark)
spots in the body of knowledge about mortality. The ignorance and mythology,
at the best common sense filled, is filling and always fills a domain of
knowledge. With shortage of scientific works on a problem the favorable
field for partisan and political gamble was created, which penetrates the
English speaking media.
Despite comprehensive bans on research the previous period, and replaced
them current squeeze of scholars out of their business with an invisible
market hand, the culture never fully dies. It is as invincible as a dirt,
by unknown ways it starts and restarts again and again. There is a certain
development and understanding of statistics of mortality. Oddly enough,
mostly results of research work are published abroad, in many cases in
English. Unfortunately, with rare exception these publications do not have
a public resonance, they do not penetrate a circle of readings of the Moscow
correspondents.
There are also editions in Russian, printed in Moscow, particularly
regular annual demographic report of the Center of demography and human
ecology (Institute of economic forecasting of Russian Academy of Sciences).
The 2000 edition had been published with some delay, and might be not noticed
by those writing about Russian demographics. But previous reports contain
the thorough analysis of mortality dynamics in Russia. Already in 1999
edition the notion of doubled
mortality had been introduced to explain the recent jumps of this parameter,
a curios person may read in the report:
... in any case there are no grounds to define growing mortality as
the human price of the reforms ...
The report 2000 goes even further, the Soviet period is considered in more
detail, namely two intervals 1923-28 and the period after world war two,
when dramatic improvements in life expectancy have taken place:
... although... life expectancy... has been doubled during past 100
years, really only child mortality has decreased ...
The analyses of mortality of real
and synthetic
cohorts are also carried out, to reduce essentially a tension in a discussion
about genocide and brutality of reforms. Resuming, I must say, what made
me angry in reviewed media publications was already disproved before their
occurrence. My need is to show to a western correspondent that there is
a lot of Russia beyond communist party.
Finally, I would like a reader to excuse my overemotional
approach.