<<previous<<
The alcohol is, perhaps, the most mythologized issue of our homeland
reality. Still Chekhov asserted, that there are only two reasons (in this
case really not causes) of death: either malicious wife or alcoholism.
It is interesting, that the writer had been formally educated as a medical
doctor, taking above into account we may not believe his statistical interference.
I shall not argue against the alcohol dependency of my beloved nation.
The communist antialcohol (or antialcoholic?) campaign has proved
the purposelessness of destroying a fundamental intimate element of national
soul.
The causal relationships of high mortality and alcohol consumption may
be challenged in several directions.
My calculation gives me a market size estimate of $3 bln ($9 bln = Goltz
approximation). The costs of vodka (due to cheap ethanol and water) production
are very low. The bigger portion of the price of each seap of alcohol goes
to Russian state, thus producing a state importance of drinking and its
regulations.
The quality of Russian made drinks has improved: (1) sanitary-chemical
parameters -- a little for beer and alcohol free beverages, and more than
twice for beverages containing alcohol; (2) respectively microbiological
parameters by one third and 15 (!) times. The quality dynamics of imported
alcohol it less clear. Thus, there is no evidence of alcohol quality leading
to mortality growth.
The frequency of annually registered cases of alcoholism (as a disease)
dropped from 1990 to 2000 by 15 percent, but alcoholic psychoses (a component
of alcoholism) have grown 4-fold. The proportion of registered alcoholics
(harmful consumers) in the total population dropped by 40 percent. The
number of registered alcoholics in Russia reduced by 150 thousand; likely
this dynamics reflects a deflation of gorbachevian "achievements", when
probably whole villages could be assigned as alcoholic to report the antialcohol
success to higher party authorities. Time after time a suspicion comes
to my mind: whether was the so abrupt mortality fall after 1985 a result
of campaign, or a deliberate distortion of figures to satisfy the secretary
general will?
From 1990 to 2000 the proportion of crimes committed in a condition
of alcoholic intoxication has decreased by 10 percent, though the overall
crime rate has grown. A criminal became more sober and, probably, more
professional. My own observations show almost total extinction of so called
"shpana" from the streets; unfortunately, it reappears again (probably
the amount of vacancies in criminal sector is also limited).
The difference between a demographer and a sociologist or a medical(ist)
is well known, the former is not only able to count rates simply dividing
one number by another, but also wants to consider factors, reasoning both
numerator and denominator. The number of events must correspond to a set
inducing them. The better the inducing set is determined, the better rate
is produced. In our case it is logical to take into account not only consuming
population, but a consumed volume as well. There are no official data on
alcohol consumption; the available data come from sample surveys, e.g.,
RLMS, which does not show the robust upward trend. There is also other
indirect evidence.
My political suggestion is as follows: further reduction in a struggle
against alcohol consumption or drunkenness. Promotion of traditional spirits,
e.g., Klinski beer, keeping in mind dramatic jump in narcomania and toxicomania.
Russia would be more attractive and safer being a country of alco-tourism
(and she already is) rather than a land of drugs' and (alco)surrogates'
users.
I would like to bring your attention to frequently mention, not reasonably
argued, but visible, substitution of strong beverages with light ones,
mainly by beer. All sorts of famous "bormotukha" have been quickly forgotten.
The alerts against beer and its advertising, made by Onishchenko, the public
opinion adequately concerns as counter
attacks of a vodka's lobbyist.
A domination of alcoholic determinism in mortality analysis is an ideological
heritage of late communism. This concept
is to localize the struggle in a convenient and safe for the central party
committee direction, withdrawing public attention from so called "ecocide"
((c) M. Feshbach), very poor living conditions, widely spread tuberculosis
(especially in the imprisoned population), insufficient budget of health
care system, etc. No need to get into this old communist trap now, since
the search is allowed and authorized not only under a lamp light.